Ecuador v. Brazil Preview

Ecuador v. Brazil

March 29th, 5:00 P.M. Eastern Time
Quito, Ecuador
Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa (Capacity 40,000)

The last time these two nations faced each other was at the Maracanã with Brazil cruising to a 5-0 win. However, this match will undoubtedly not be as easy. Ecuador’s form had improved before a hiccup against Venezuela in their last qualifier. The other factor facing Brazil is Ecuador’s 12th man, the altitude in Quito. Atahualpa Stadium sits roughly 9,300 feet above sea level, which makes fitness a daunting task for opponents. In home qualifying matches thus far the Ecuadorians have not allowed more than a goal in a home match. Ecuador is 3-1-1 at home(3-4-3 overall) with 3 goals allowed in 5 games at home. Needless to say, it’s imperative that Dunga uses his subs in a more efficient manner than he did during the Italy match.

Ecuador is spearheaded by Premier League trio Felipe Caicedo (Man City), Antonio Valencia (Wigan), and Segundo Castillo (Everton), not to mention a slew of players from sensational Copa Libertadores champion LDU Quito. Their leading goal scorer is PSV Eindhoven winger Edison Méndez. Valencia has been outstanding for Wigan this season and is the man in the midfield for the Ecuadorians. This is a talented roster, one that many expect to overcome their early qualifying woes and make it to South Africa.

Key to this match for Brazil will be the containment of Antonio Valencia and the overall performance of its midfield. The stats below are a telling story of the problems in the midfield.

H – Colombia 5(3)
A – Venezuela 10(6)
H – Bolivia 5(2)
A – Chile 6(5)
H – Argentina 3(3)
A – Paraguay 1(1)
H – Uruguay 2(2)

These numbers are the amount of shots and shots on goal Brazil has produced in their last seven qualifiers. They are telling of Brazil’s biggest weakness right now: a lack of creativity and effectiveness in the midfield. These numbers also don’t tell you how many of the shots were just based on a quick counter where the forwards did most of the work. Without knowing the score of any of these matches, only the Venezuela match could you plausibly think Brazil, with these numbers, went on to win the match. Dunga has not showed a willingness to alter his tactics or lineups in the midfield that could lead to greater productivity. There were signs of improvement in the last two friendlies, and the insertion of Felipe Melo has appeared to help. I believe unless changes are made in this qualifier and future matchups we see the same lackluster results Brazil have displayed throughout this qualifying campaign.

Rosters

Ecuador

Jose Francisco Cevallos (Liga Deportiva Universitaria), Marcelo Elizaga (Emelec), Maximo Banguera (Barcelona SC); Neicer Reasco, Jairo Campos, Paul Ambrossi (all Liga Deportiva Universitaria), Miguel Ibarra (Espoli), Giovanni Espinoza (Barcelona SC), Jorge Guagua (El Nacional), Ivan Hurtado (Millonarios), Isaac Mina (Deportivo Quito), Deyson Mendez (Espoli); Segundo Castillo (Everton), Edison Mendez (PSV Eindhoven), Antonio Valencia (Wigan), Cristian Noboa (Rubin Kazan), Joffre Guerron (Getafe), Walter Ayovi (Monterrey), David Quiroz (Emelec), Patricio Urrutia (all Liga Deportiva Universitaria), Jefferson Montero (Independiente del Valle Jose Teran); Felipe Caicedo (Manchester City), Cristian Benitez (Santos Laguna), Pablo Palacios (Barcelona SC), Walter Calderon (all Liga Deportiva Universitaria), Joao Rojas (Emelec).

Brazil

Julio Cesar (Inter Milan), Doni (AS Roma), Daniel Alves (Barcelona), Maicon (Inter Milan), Lucio (Bayern Munich), Miranda (Sao Paulo), Thiago Silva (AC Milan), Luisao (Benfica), Marcelo (Real Madrid), Kleber (Internacional), Gilberto Silva (Panathinaikos), Josue (VfL Wolfsburg), Anderson (Manchester United), Felipe Melo (Fiorentina), Elano (Manchester City), Julio Baptista (AS Roma), Kaka (AC Milan), Ronaldinho (AC Milan), Alexandre Pato (AC Milan), Luis Fabiano (Sevilla), Adriano (Inter Milan), Robinho (Manchester City)

Potentional Lineup:

Forwards: Robinho, Adriano, Ronaldinho
Midfield: Felipe Melo, Gilberto Silva, Elano
Defense: Marcelo, Lucio, Luisao, Maicon
Goal: Julio Cesar

Injuries:

Kaka just returned to the AC Milan camp after re-aggravating an injury at Siena. Its unclear whether he’ll start the match, but he will be on the roster. I will update the projected XI closer to the 29th as the news becomes available.

Prediction: 1-0 Brazil